Can Weymouth make the 23/24 National League South play-offs?

Two months ago, that would have sounded a ridiculous question.

However, the Terras have now hauled themselves eight points clear of the bottom four and find themselves nine points adrift of the play-offs.

These days, the final play-off spot is seventh place and, with Weymouth currently in 19th, having nine points separate 12 clubs is illustrative of a hugely competitive 2023/24 season.

So, we’ve crunched the numbers and assessed what Weymouth might need to do to reach the post-season.

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The first metric we can use is the average number of points required to finish in the final play-off spot in the last 10 fully completed seasons.

For the purposes of this statistic, we’ll cancel out the Covid-affected 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 seasons.

This means we are looking at the 2022/23 campaign right back to the 2011/12 term.

And the resulting requirement is a final points tally of 68.3 on average to claim the last play-off spot.

Scores of 74, 59, 66, 69, 69, 64, 70, 69, 72 and 71 have been sufficient to reach the play-offs in this division, which means Weymouth will need an extremely strong finish to the season.

Bobby Wilkinson’s men currently have 32 points after 27 matches, meaning they must claim at least 36 to reach the average – and even then it may not be enough.

With only 19 matches remaining, it means Weymouth require 12 victories or an average of 1.89 points per game from here on in to reach the play-offs.

Given they have only lost once in their last six league games, that figure may not be insurmountable for an improving Terras side.

However, to reach the play-offs, some of the teams currently in those positions must be displaced.

So, there can be no finer opportunity for Weymouth to do this than in a gruesome run of games in which they play six of the current top eight clubs.

Weymouth’s next four matches are against St Albans, Taunton, Dartford and Hemel Hempstead.

Look beyond those and the extremely challenging run begins as Chelmsford (5th), Worthing (2nd), Hampton & Richmond (3rd), Maidstone (4th), Torquay (8th) and then Aveley (7th) take on the Terras.

This shows that not only do Weymouth have to capitalise on their next four games, they must do a lot of winning against the top-eight teams above.

They will also need to improve by exactly 50% last season’s tally in the final 19 league games.

Admittedly, the two Weymouth sides of this and the previous term are almost completely different, but in 2022/23 they managed 24 points in the stated timeframe.

It means Weymouth must turn four of the nine losses they experienced last year into victories to complete the 12-point improvement needed and reach the Promised Land of 68 points.

And, of course, they must also claim the other 24 points as a bare minimum.

Therefore, it seems the Terras have their work cut out to finish in seventh place.

When asked if the play-offs were possible if Weymouth timed a run to perfection, Wilkinson did not rule it out.

“I can’t say yes,” he conceded to Echosport.

“I know in the back of my mind where I want to be. My record over the years shows that I can.

“Hopefully people see this week what I’m trying to do and get the squad down to the 16 I want.

“The boys that aren’t playing, get them out (on loan) and playing games. A lot of teams now start to drop off in mid-table and start surviving. That’s when I normally push.

“I’ll be pushing, but I can’t say where we’re going to end up. All we’re doing is looking at the next game.”

How will Wilkinson approach these final 19 games, then?

“You start to realise at this stage of the season how fit your team are,” he continued.

“Everyone’s speaking about how fit, organised we are and we’ve got players enjoying their football and creating lots of chances.

“For some reason over the last few years, it usually comes good. Last year, it came brilliant because I kept us up.

“Let’s just have a really good end to the season.”

And Wilkinson is simply pleased that the narrative at the club is beginning to change from looking down the table, to looking up it.

He said: “They’ve been looking up from the bottom of the ocean.

“What’s really nice is that I’ve got them looking at the top of the ocean and now I want us to start paddling along to the end.

“It’s been really good in that way. There seems a lot of positives around the ground, especially the last six or seven weeks.

“I see a lot of people just look at the league table. What I look at is: ‘Are we being consistent? Are we building? Have we got good players?’

“We’re only going to get stronger.

“The future is unbelievable if I can keep them together, but we’re a good two seasons away from being where we want to be regularly, but at least you can see a pathway.”

Earning 1.89 points per game for a club that has struggled and suffered one relegation in the past four seasons may seem improbable.

The odds are therefore more in favour of Weymouth reaching the top half only, or indeed the upper reaches of the bottom half.

They might also be forced to look south, with Eastbourne, Havant and Welling all having the financial clout to wake themselves from their current malaise in the relegation zone.

What Weymouth can do in those daunting six games may define their season and we will certainly have a clearer picture come mid-March.

Can Weymouth reach the play-offs, then? Yes, it’s still mathematically possible.

Will Weymouth reach the play-offs? That’s a more challenging question to answer, and one the solution to which lies with the players and staff at the Terras.

Buckle up, it’s going to be a fascinating second half of the campaign.